Interesting article by Dan Frommer:
The Internet has already changed the television industry significantly, and will continue to do so. But the idea that the web will cause the TV business to “collapse” is fantasy.
I think the word ‘collapse’ was probably poorly chosen by the commentators Dan is arguing against. When disruption finally comes to the TV industry, it won’t collapse. A whole lot of new value will be created; it will just be in a different form to the current value chains and probably with the majority of new profits going to entrants rather than the incumbents.
What impact that has on the business of the incumbents depends on all the factors Dan identified: their level of investment in new technologies and models, existing content deals, and so on.